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Analysis
Michigan Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over her party’s nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, on Nov. 1, less than two days before election day. The split exposes an unresolved fight inside the Democratic Party over Israel in a race that could help decide control of the Senate.
Analysis: What It Means
On Nov. 1, Michigan Democrat Haley Stevens threw her support behind Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers instead of Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, CNBC reported. Coming less than 48 hours before Election Day, the move arrived as voters were set to determine which party would hold Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term. Earlier this year, Stevens lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed, and she had endorsed him after that contest.
The context
The seat is open because Democratic Sen. Gary Peters decided not to seek re-election, CNBC reported. The outlet called the Michigan race critical to deciding who controls the Senate.
The split was foreshadowed. According to CNBC, friction had been building for several days over an advertisement put out by a group called Rebellion PAC. In the ad, a couple weighs whether they can afford groceries given U.S. backing for Israel. El-Sayed’s campaign has stated that it had no part in the ad and no connection to it.
Underneath that fight is a larger one. CNBC said U.S. support for Israel was a major issue in the primary. Stevens is a staunch supporter of Israel, the outlet reported, while El-Sayed has called Israel’s conduct in Gaza after the Oct. 7 terror attacks a genocide.
In her video on X, Stevens said El-Sayed had told her she was no longer welcome in his campaign. She said he was right. She also said: “I don’t belong in Abdul’s campaign.”
CNBC reported that Stevens’ fiancé, Jason Turkish, endorsed Rogers before she did. According to CNBC, he cited what he said was rising antisemitism.
How each side responded
El-Sayed brushed it off outside a church on Nov. 1, standing with Rep. Jim Clyburn and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, both Democrats. “I actually don’t think about Haley Stevens,” he said, according to CNBC. He then turned to school lunches and medical bills, saying those are the things that matter to families.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, who had preferred Stevens in the primary according to CNBC, stood by El-Sayed. Schumer said Senate Democrats are united behind him and called Rogers a tool of Trump and billionaire donors. He also accused Republicans of racist and Islamophobic attacks on El-Sayed. Those are Schumer’s characterizations. CNBC did not report evidence for them. In a later post, Schumer called Stevens’ move “a despicable betrayal from Rep. Stevens.”
Trump praised the endorsement on Truth Social. He called Stevens a “Highly Respected Democrat” and said her following in Michigan is huge. CNBC did not report any polling or data on that claim.
The take
This section is analysis.
Start with what the facts show. A candidate who ran in a bruising primary, lost, and then backed the winner has walked away from him in the final days. That is a real crack in the party’s public message of unity.
Schumer’s statement says Senate Democrats are united. Stevens’ endorsement shows a prominent Michigan Democrat who is not. Voters can judge for themselves which statement better describes the party.
The Israel fight is the center of it, and it is a fight Democrats have to settle among themselves. Stevens and El-Sayed hold opposite views, according to CNBC. The Rebellion PAC ad tied grocery prices to foreign policy, and that is the kind of argument that split the party in the primary.
There is also a limit to what this proves. The sources contain no polling. They do not show how many Michigan voters, if any, will move because of one congresswoman’s endorsement. Trump’s claim about her following is his own statement. It is not a measured finding.
El-Sayed’s answer is worth taking seriously on its own terms. He pointed to families worried about lunches and medical bills. Those concerns reach voters of both parties, and Rogers must show he has better answers. An endorsement does not make that case for him.
Stevens’ own words were measured in one respect. “I’m sorry people are upset,” she told reporters in Detroit, standing with Rogers. She said she understood the reaction. Some Democrats clearly are upset, and Schumer’s response shows it.
What to watch and when
- Election day, less than two days after the Nov. 1 endorsement. Michigan voters decide between Rogers and El-Sayed in a race CNBC called critical to Senate control.
- The Rogers campaign. CNBC’s report did not include a response from Rogers on the endorsement beyond his appearance with Stevens in Detroit.
- Other Michigan Democrats. The reports did not say whether any other Democratic officials will follow Stevens.
- The Rebellion PAC ad. El-Sayed’s campaign says it had no part in the ad. The reports did not say who is behind the PAC.
This story is developing and will be updated.
Sources
What it means for you
- Election day is less than two days after the Nov. 1 endorsement, and the Michigan Senate race could help decide control of the Senate.
- Democratic leaders say they are united behind El-Sayed, but Stevens has publicly backed Rogers, so the party’s split over Israel is now out in the open.
- The reports include no polling, so the endorsement’s effect on Michigan voters is unknown.
- El-Sayed says families are focused on school lunches and medical bills, so expect the final stretch to turn on those cost-of-living concerns.