Analysis
Voters on Nov. 3 decide control of Congress, 36 governorships and 145 statewide ballot measures, according to Fox News. The measures reach taxes, election rules, abortion and other family policy.
Analysis: What It Means
Voters on Nov. 3 will decide more than who runs Congress, according to Fox News. Republicans are defending slim majorities in the House and Senate. The ballot also carries 36 governorships, legislative races in all but four states and 145 statewide ballot measures.
The map beyond Washington
Fox’s final Power Rankings rate the fight for the Senate a toss-up. In the forecast, each party sits three seats shy of a majority. Democrats are favored in 48 seats, while Republicans hold the edge in 47.
Fox said a Democratic wave could produce up to 54 Senate seats. A strong Republican night could hold the chamber with up to 52.
Beyond the toss-ups, Republicans are also defending competitive seats in Kansas, rated Lean Republican, and Ohio, rated Lean Democrat. Democrats are defending Michigan, a toss-up, plus Minnesota and New Hampshire, both Lean Democrat.
Fox also noted that the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats in midterm years. Republicans are working against that pattern.
There are now 26 Republican and 24 Democratic governors. The Power Rankings list three GOP-held offices as toss-ups: Alaska, Nevada and Georgia. Wisconsin, an open seat with a Democratic incumbent party, is also a toss-up.
Florida, Kansas and Texas are rated Lean Republican. Five more races are rated Lean Democrat: Arizona, Michigan, Oregon, Iowa and Ohio. Democrats defend the first three, and Republicans defend open offices in Iowa and Ohio.
In the House, Fox contributor Remy Numa, who steers the Power Rankings, pointed to Kentucky’s 6th District as an early signal. He said Trump won it by 15 points in the last presidential election, but “it looks close this cycle.” He tied that to left-leaning college voters and farmers facing higher costs.
What voters will decide directly
Measures requiring voter identification at the polls, or banning noncitizen voting, are on the ballot in 11 states. They are West Virginia, South Dakota, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Kansas, Colorado, California, Arkansas, Arizona and Alaska.
Alaskans will also vote on whether to repeal ranked choice voting, open primaries and a campaign finance disclosure rule. According to Fox, voters adopted the present system in 2020 and only barely retained it in 2024. Fox added that the system is now being examined closely due to a dispute over a possible spoiler candidate in the state’s Senate contest.
Virginia voters will decide whether convicted felons regain the right to vote on release.
Two tax measures stand out. California’s Proposition 40 would levy a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of Californians worth more than $1 billion. Fox called it the first of its kind and said most of the revenue would go to healthcare.
A Washington state referendum would undo a 9.9% tax on income above $1 million a year, which lawmakers recently approved. Fox noted that the state currently does not collect a personal income tax.
Family and social questions are on many ballots. Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska and Washington state have measures on transgender students in sports. Colorado also has one that would block gender transition surgeries for minors and bar state or federal money for those procedures.
Missouri voters are considering whether to repeal a right to abortion and to ban medical treatment for children seeking gender transitions. An Idaho initiative would overturn one of the country’s strictest abortion bans. Voters in Virginia and Nevada will decide whether to establish a right to abortion in their state constitutions.
Maryland, Missouri and Colorado have measures on congressional redistricting. California, Colorado and Arizona have measures on energy, transportation and development.
Analysis: the conservative take
This section is analysis and reflects the Keystone Daily view.
The first lesson is that self-government does not stop at Washington. Many of the biggest questions this year go straight to voters in their states. That fits the Constitution’s federal design, and it lets citizens weigh in on taxes and election rules without waiting on Congress.
Voter ID and noncitizen voting measures in 11 states ask a simple question: who votes, and how do we know. A rule that applies to every voter the same way is easy to explain. Those who favor ID requirements have a plain case to make, and voters will answer it themselves.
The tax measures raise a different principle. California’s Proposition 40 singles out a small group of residents for a one-time levy. Conservatives should ask whether a government that can target a narrow class today can widen the class later. Fox’s report did not say how much the measure would raise or what effects it would have, and those answers matter.
Washington’s measure runs the other way. It asks voters to undo a tax their lawmakers recently approved. That is a reminder that elected officials answer to the people who pay the bills.
On abortion, sports and medical care for minors, the ballot shows how divided the country is. Voters in different states will give different answers. A conservative who believes in limited government should accept that voters are the ones deciding.
Straight reporting also cuts against Republicans here. Fox’s rankings point to a Democratic House and a toss-up Senate, and history favors the party out of power. Fox said even a good Republican night could leave the GOP six seats short of a House majority. President Trump said last week that electing a Republican Congress means the country will keep putting “America first every single day.” Whether that message reaches enough voters is the open question.
What to watch
Polling places begin closing on Nov. 3 at 6 p.m. ET in some areas of Kentucky and Indiana. Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia close their polls at 7 p.m. ET, as do most areas of Florida and New Hampshire. In North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia, voting wraps up at 7:30 p.m. ET.
At 8 p.m. ET, Pennsylvania, Maine, Missouri and a dozen other states close, and most polls in Texas, Michigan and Kansas also close. California and Washington state close at 11 p.m. ET.
Alaska is the place to watch late. Most of the state closes at midnight ET and the rest at 1 a.m. ET. It has a Senate toss-up, a governor toss-up and the ranked choice repeal on the same ballot.
Forecasts are projections, not results.
Sources:
What it means for you
- If California’s Proposition 40 passes, residents worth over $1 billion would face a one-time 5% wealth tax, with most of the money going to healthcare, according to Fox.
- If Washington voters approve the referendum, a recently passed 9.9% tax on income above $1 million a year would be repealed in a state with no personal income tax.
- If voter ID or noncitizen voting measures pass in the 11 states where they appear, including Arizona, Ohio and North Carolina, election rules in those states could change.
- Governors are chosen in 36 states, and Fox rates Alaska, Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin as toss-ups. Because Alaska’s last polls close at 1 a.m. ET, some results there could come late.