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Analysis
Fox News Voter Poll results show Republican Senate candidates ran behind Donald Trump’s 2024 showing with rural, working-class and young voters in several states they lost. The poll also shows voters in those states worried about prices, gas, tariffs and the Iran war.
Analysis: What It Means
According to Fox News, the results handed Democrats control of the chamber after they picked up Senate seats in South Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Iowa and Kansas. Trump’s 2024 figures were the benchmark, and the Fox News Voter Poll, which surveyed more than 100,000 voters across the country, found Republican candidates lagging behind those numbers among key groups in most of those states.
The numbers behind the losses
In South Carolina, Fox said Republican Darline Graham underperformed the strength of her brother, the late Lindsey Graham, who won re-election in 2020 by 11 points. Rural voters gave Trump 63% in 2024. Graham got 51%.
Independents broke hard against her. Fox said Democrat Annie Andrews took about 7 in 10 of them, while Graham managed less than 20%.
Party unity also favored Democrats. Almost all Democrats backed Andrews, but only about 8 in 10 Republicans backed Graham, and more than 10% of Republicans crossed over. Even so, Graham held 70% of non-MAGA Republicans, per Fox, against Trump’s 79% two years earlier.
Ohio showed a wider shift. Fox said Trump won 61% of voters without a college degree in 2024, while Republican John Husted got about half. Trump took 60% of voters under 30, and Husted got less than a quarter.
Fox also said Trump won 58% of Hispanic voters in 2024 against 41% for Kamala Harris. This time, three-quarters of them backed Democrat Sherrod Brown. Husted ran about 11 points behind Trump’s 70% with rural voters.
In Iowa, Fox said Republican Ashley Hinson held rural voters, but by less than Trump did. Six in 10 Iowa voters said tariffs hurt the state’s economy. The same share said they were very concerned about gas prices and that the Iran war was the wrong decision. Seven in 10 said they were angry or dissatisfied with the country’s direction.
Kansas had not elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly 100 years, according to Fox. Rural voters gave Trump 72% in 2024, and only about six in 10 backed Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Fox said Trump campaigned for Marshall three times in the state, and Marshall made no attempt to distance himself from the president.
Sixty percent of Kansas voters, roughly six in 10, said the Iran war was the wrong decision, and over half said they were very worried about gas prices. Nearly six in 10 believed Trump was concentrating on the wrong priorities. Fox reported that those voters backed Democrat Adam Hamilton by almost 10 to 1.
In Maine, Fox said Democrat Troy Jackson defeated five-term Sen. Susan Collins, leaving New England with no Republican in Congress. Eight in 10 voters called control of the Senate a crucial or major factor. Jackson carried them by more than 10 points. The state of democracy was the top issue, and eight in 10 of those voters backed Jackson.
Analysis: the conservative take
This section is opinion based on the poll results above.
The first lesson is about prices. Voters in these states told Fox pollsters they felt strain. Three-quarters in South Carolina and eight in 10 in Ohio said inflation hurt their families. A party that stands for free enterprise and a strong family budget cannot dismiss that.
Tariffs and gas prices deserve the sharpest look. In Iowa and Kansas, six in 10 voters said tariffs hurt their state’s economy. Conservatives who believe in free markets should treat that as a signal from voters, not as noise.
The poll cannot prove why each voter chose as they did. It reports what voters said and how groups voted. But the pattern is consistent. Where Republicans fell behind Trump’s 2024 marks, voters also said they were worried about costs.
The facts also cut against some Republican assumptions. Fox said the “extreme” label Husted tried to pin on Brown did not stick, because voters knew him from three terms. Fox said a controversial Ramaswamy campaign ad against Democrat Amy Acton appeared to have little impact.
Candidate quality mattered too. More than six in 10 South Carolina voters said Graham lacked the right experience. In Kansas, Fox said Hamilton’s standing as a well-known figure helped him. Conservatives who want to win in tough years need candidates voters already know and trust.
Finally, no single approach saved Republicans. Fox described non-MAGA Republicans as one of Collins’ strongest groups, and it was not enough. Marshall stayed close to Trump, and Fox said that likely hurt him. Different strategies reached the same result when the economy led voters’ concerns.
What to watch
Fox’s report did not give a final Senate seat count or say when the new senators take office. Watch for official results and swearing-in dates from election officials.
Also watch whether gas prices, food costs and tariffs stay at the top of voters’ concerns. The poll shows they were front of mind in these states. Fox’s report gave no timeline for any policy change.
This story is developing and will be updated.
Sources
What it means for you
- Voters in Iowa and Kansas told Fox pollsters that tariffs hurt their state’s economy, and about six in 10 in each state called the Iran war the wrong decision.
- Gas prices worried voters: Fox reported six in 10 in Iowa and more than half in Kansas were very concerned about them.
- Fox’s report gave no final Senate seat count or swearing-in dates. Watch for official results.